Project Focus
The transmission of infectious diseases depends on human behavior and their relations. However, current epidemiological models consider social structures only at a highly abstract level. To increase the predictive capability and explanatory power, models of human behavior incorporating social complexity are therefore urgently needed. We address this gap by developing an agent-based approach that utilizes comprehensive micro-level data of complete households. This allows us to create artificial societies that are representative for underlying social structures and contact networks. Based on comprehensive COVID-19 data, we then utilize Bayesian model calibration to estimate unknown parameters and quantify their uncertainty. Conducting various simulation experiments will then allow us to identify super-spreaders and assess the efficiency of interventions. Thus, the project makes not only a substantial contribution to a holistic ”Digital Human Model”, but is also a methodological response to the increasing demand for empirically-calibrated simulation models. However, computational models always bear the risk of incorporating biases. We will tackle this challenge, which is enhanced by potential stigmatization of super-spreaders, by incorporating sensitivity analyses and so pave the way for the development of systematic ”methods of reflection”.
Project Members
- Jun.-Prof. Dr. Raphael Heiberger, Institute for Social Sciences
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Marius Kaffai, Institute for Social Sciences
Duration
07/2022 – 12/2025
Funding
The project is funded by the German Research Foundation within the Cluster of Excellence "Data-Integrated Simulation Science" (EXC 2075).